May 18th, 2009 Posted in Oil, Trade | No Comments »
Early last week, oil briefly traded above $60 for the first time since November. Hard to believe that last summer oil peaked at nearly $150/bbl, and subsequently collapsed to a multi-year low of $32/bbl in February. So while we’re way off last summer’s levels, we have witnessed a practical doubling in price in just a few months time. It goes without saying that consumers and producers are all impacted in some way by price, and even though comparatively lower prices are welcomed, the volatility and recent upside are sources of uncertainty.
The message from oil analysts and capital market participants is mixed. On one side, the picture is bleak, as unemployment and economic contraction loom, while so-called oil “fundamentals” are weak (weak demand and strong supply). These all suggest that the oil rally may have run its course for the time being. However, the bullish camp points to the now rhetorical “green shoots of recovery” theory, reports of stockpiling by China, short (seller) covering in futures markets, and higher risk appetite among investors and traders — with all the aforementioned accompanied by a weakening dollar, which has an inverse relationship with oil and many other commodities.
Therefore, it truly is a mixed bag. For consumers and domestic U.S. manufacturers, an economic recovery at home and more broadly around the world has huge implications, but higher oil nibbles away at the purse and at margins, respectively. At the same time, as a weak dollar typically suggests a more favorable climate for U.S. exports, there is pressure on the input (or materials) side from rising commodities. Nevertheless, at current price levels, higher growth for higher oil is a bargain! For oil producers, higher oil is almost always welcome, although refining operations can cap the upside. Also, higher oil means more likelihood for investment and exploration, which eventually may lead to more revenues, and supply, but ultimately, perhaps somewhat of a damper on prices.
That being said, TradeFlow21 remains enthusiastic about the sustained growth prospects in the Middle East. In some cases, oil now accounts for a lower portion of GDP than in years past as Gulf economies seek economic diversification, but in terms of a source of foreign reserves, oil overwhelmingly remains the source of liquidity. In our opinion, the higher oil prices of late are not necessarily worrisome from the U.S. viewpoint. Reason being is that OPEC, and the Gulf producers in general, are sensitive. A recent guest on Bloomberg Radio made the point that the Gulf producers don’t want to be blamed for a prolonged global recession, and therefore, are willing to sacrifice near-term profits and even some budgetary shortfalls. Oil producing companies have a relatively low break-even price, perhaps as low as $30 or less, but oil producing nations that went on a spending spree in recent years tend to have budgets based on break-even oil in the $40-$60 range, with outliers such as Abu Dhabi in the low $30s and Bahrain in the $70s (Fitch Ratings). No doubt sovereign budgets have been, and will be further adjusted, but in order to sustain growth, significant amounts of money will continue to be spent within the region. For Connecticut manufacturers and exporters, the Gulf represents real opportunity (from everyday consumer products to building materials and beyond), and TradeFlow21 is here to help make the region more accessible to you.
